I think the big question on traders' minds now is: is this the beginning of the end? Is this the end of this long run-up? |
I would suspect we'll go out with a whimper. |
I've heard horror stories about how illiquid the market for mortgage-backed securities is. |
It wasn't on the fly, screaming demand. The overriding factor is what the global economic situation is -- and it is tenuous at best. |
It's been a long bull run with yields lower, and we're just seeing a few chinks taken out of the bond market's armor. |
It's the same thing day in and day out. There's nothing really new. |
That's going to be our next hurdle. |
The bottom line is it's difficult for a Treasury market to rally when the Fed has indicated they are not done tightening. |
The shorter end of the U.S. yield curve is holding a fairly nice firm tone. |
The tolerance for risk is much lower. We are going to have a volatile week -- bottom line. |
The traders are for the most part are out. So we're just biding out time. |
There is just tremendous demand both for flight-to-quality reasons and because of these credit spreads. |
Things are still looking pretty good, and the economy seems to be slowing down, right into the Fed's hands. |
We are getting a bounce here. |
We're pricing in a 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut (by half a percentage point). |