28 ordspråk av Michael Englund

Michael Englund

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Consumers are always concerned about the economy but the key is whether they are predisposed to increasing caution when it comes to spending. I think today's report demonstrates that the hurricanes had an ambiguous affect on spending.

Even with the weakness in the headline number, the rest of the story looks good. June, July, August have all shown strength in retail sales outside of autos.

For the Fed ... they know there will be disruptions in September from Katrina, but policy is forward-looking and takes six months to have any effect. If the Fed can withstand the political heat, they will stick to their guns with a quarter-point rate hike.

Going into the hurricane we had a shortage of refining capacity anyway. This just throws a hand grenade into the already delicate balance.

Gold is a flight-to-quality product.

I wouldn't be surprised to see more weakness in the September report.

In general, the economy is proving to be resilient to energy and gas price pressure. It's on a growth path. Even though oil prices are higher, the fundamentals of the economy are strong. Therefore, we see consumers' savings rate falling and spending up.

It's a slow week for releases, ... I think there's almost no chance the productivity revision or the wholesale inflation numbers will have much effect on the Fed's March policy decision.

It's the impact from Katrina, which in the first few weeks will be at a maximum, and it does increase our confidence that we will see a hit to the other sentiment indexes in September.

Not only are these numbers small compared to the economy, they don't reflect actual errors in reporting the sales of actual goods and services, ... WorldCom, for example, wasn't overstating the amount of phone service it provided.

Not only are these numbers small compared to the economy, they don't reflect actual errors in reporting the sales of actual goods and services. WorldCom, for example, wasn't overstating the amount of phone service it provided.

Overall, the damage from the hurricane on the economy is limited, and by November and December we will start seeing the positive effect on production from rebuilding.

Overall, they were a bit concerned about inflation and see strong growth, which supports the notion that they will continue to tighten policy. But after Katrina, all bets on how much they might tighten are off the table,

Producers tried to catch up with strong sales starting in June and July, but they can't keep up. Auto inventories took a big hit.

The economy will likely continue to prove surprisingly resilient to rising oil prices.

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