I think they're likely to lower the funds rate 25 basis points and the reason is when they sit around the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] table, I think they will perceive that the risk to the economy and financial markets are still to the down side, but it's not a slam dunk, |
I think they're likely to lower the funds rate 25 basis points and the reason is when they sit around the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] table, I think they will perceive that the risk to the economy and financial markets are still to the down side, but it's not a slam dunk. |
I think we are in a recession. |
I think we are in a recession. All the major indicators are not just declining, but have been declining for a while, |
I'd read it differently. It's hard to question that housing activity is strong -- it is. The question is what's going to happen to the rate of growth, and I think it's going to flatten out. |
I'd say this doesn't provide any evidence [for an interest rate move] one way or the other. |
I'm looking for a 25-basis-point (quarter-percentage-point) cut. |
I'm more interested in how people spend than how they respond to surveys. I've found that the consumer sentiment survey really doesn't provide much value added in forecasting consumer spending patterns. I'm not too upset about the decline. |
Keep in mind that monetary policy works with a lag, so that this shouldn't have any impact on the consumer, ... My guess is a quarter point. |
Let's say you're CEO of a company, ... And you're smart enough to see the Fed trying to keep a lid on inflation. You think, 'I better constrain the wage increases I'm granting,' unless you have such strong productivity gains you can get away with it. |
Let's say you're CEO of a company. And you're smart enough to see the Fed trying to keep a lid on inflation. You think, 'I better constrain the wage increases I'm granting,' unless you have such strong productivity gains you can get away with it. |
Looking forward, the factors are in place for economy to rebound, ... Capital spending will stay in negative territory for a while, but I expect consumer spending to turn by the end of the year. |
Particularly with the recent jump through energy [costs], real wages have fallen behind a little bit. The financial markets are too quick to assume that higher wages result in inflation. That's not true at all. |
Production and employment always follow demand, and we've seen a pickup in demand. I think this will translate into a better labor market in May or June. I know the employment reports have been disappointing lately, but be patient. |
Regardless of who is president, it looks like they will not have a mandate. |