28 ordspråk av Mike Wittner
Mike Wittner
Another surge of new money is coming into the commodity markets.
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As far as making a big bet on the weather, even if you're bearish it's still too early to go short in a big way.
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But markets are not really surprised. UK oil production has been declining for several years.
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Declines will continue. There is only one new field of any size - the Buzzard field - set to come online. Otherwise it's just bits and pieces.
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I think the markets will begin pricing in the downstream investments during 2007.
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In the near term, the markets will continue to strengthen and weaken with the weather, and crude and product prices will be range-bound.
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It appears increasingly likely that we will need colder-than-normal temperatures in order for heating oil and gas oil to perform this winter and lead crude up,
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It's all more fodder for financial investors.
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It's just a bit of profit taking after the weekend.
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It's U.S. gasoline, its Nigeria, it's the financial flows and Iran is there in the background. Do I think we're going to hit $70 at some point? Easily.
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Strong demand is now priced in. Barring a sustained cold snap, I can't see any fundamental reason for much more of an up-move.
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The bottom line is US demand seems to be recovering, but the market still needs to be convinced of that.
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The difference from the last couple of years is that supply fears are driving the market.
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The market doesn't need more sour crude now, it needs more oil products. For anyone who has been paying close attention to oil markets in recent months, the whole thing is a big shrug of the shoulders.
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The market has consolidated for the last day and a half. If the gasoline draws are larger than expected, we'll be off to the races again.
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