48 ordspråk av Oscar Gonzalez

Oscar Gonzalez

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Even though the numbers are soothing, the Fed still is on high alert for a future flare-up in prices,

Continuation of a slowing trend is likely, and it could put the Fed in a pretty tight spot, because it could leave it wanting to possibly reverse its recent policies and start easing rates.

The inflation threat clearly seems to be fading as the economy cools, ... signal that the Fed may now shift its emphasis to growing the economy rather than fighting inflation. It allows them to start thinking about a rate cut sooner rather than later.

I think the Fed will act aggressively. The timing remains to be seen, but both Main Street and Wall Street are pleading for further rate cuts, so I think Greenspan will respond. The sooner and deeper a rate cut, the sooner consumer and business confidence should improve.

Since the economy is softening, I expect inflationary pressures to subside. The door is still open for the Fed to continue easing rates, as necessary.

If, as expected, the October employment report shows a sharp rise in unemployment and a sharp decline in job growth, it could be a crushing blow to confidence. Having a job is probably the single biggest factor in consumers having confidence.

Inflation is on the mat and not getting up soon. With the U.S. economy still in a recession and economies around the world weak, demand is slack and resulting in no inflationary pressures at all. Simply put, no one can raise prices.

Today's figures simply reflect an economy still emerging from a recession; there's certainly nothing here to suggest inflation rising from the ashes. In terms of impact, it might as well be ancient history, especially now. The Federal Reserve is back to worrying about where inflation will be in six months, not where it was last month.

Consumers will continue to spend, and that will keep the economy chugging along for the next few months. But without some help, I worry that consumers could begin to falter later in the year. We need more business spending to fuel the economy's shift into a higher gear and sustain the recovery.

We are possibly on the brink of war, so it would have been a great surprise if consumer confidence hadn't fallen.

All eyes will now shift to next week's employment report. The figures we've seen over the past few weeks suggest it will be quite weak. The report may be enough to push the Fed into giving the economy another shot in the arm at their next meeting.

Rising benefit costs are cutting into already lean corporate profits. This may cause businesses to further delay additional hiring, which is critical to boosting the sluggish economy.

Jobs are a lagging indicator, and other economic indicators suggest the economy is in fact on the mend. We still expect it will continue to improve through the rest of the year.

Until businesses feel a real need for more hands-until productivity alone won't allow them to reach their earnings goals-they won't begin hiring.

We are looking at a growth rate somewhere in between 6.5 percent and 7 percent at this point. I think it's really going to be up there.

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