18 ordspråk av Phil Roth

Phil Roth

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Earnings are going to be mixed.

I don't think there's likely to be much of a setback here. We could see some consolidation, but I don't see any reason for a sustained decline.

I've said we would make a cyclical top in the first half of 2004. It may not happen until the third quarter, but the ingredients are moving into place.

Intel isn't the market. They're marking the futures down, but I think this is a minimal affair. Everybody already knew the tech sector is in trouble. This is nervous traders protecting themselves -- not the start of a new decline.

Investors are going to be surprised when we get a string of stronger economic stats. But we might have to get through earnings season before that happens.

It was a strong day for technology and small stocks. But most major stocks were mediocre performers.

Next, we worry about the 'January effect,' or lack of it.

So far, Santa has been stingy.

That shows a significant drop in speculative interest.

The bullish scenario would be, it [the market] rallies again today and tomorrow. That would be a sign the rebuilding has started.

There was emotional selling, with huge gaps on the downside. There was huge volatility, and a big recovery after the selling.

This is just an extension of this selective strength, nominal new-high environment. It doesn't seem to be accelerating.

This is what the end of a bull market looks like: strong economy, rising interest rates.

This market is oversold. We've reached new highs and the market is looking for excuses to sell off a bit. But this market is resilient and I think it will prolong its advance by running into some rough spots here.

We won't know about that until next week. For now, we give the benefit of the doubt to the upside and still look for nominal additional gains early in 2006.

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