The unemployment rate in the first quarter should have been at least 6.3 percent -- significantly higher than January-February's 5.75-percent average. |
The US economy is currently in the midst of the most profound hiring shortfall of any modern-day business cycle. |
There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack. |
They will still go. Absolutely. Definitely. There's no question about it. They now have a little latitude to space the timing of the increases, but there's no question they will move. |
Ultimately, a weaker dollar will spur policy shifts abroad that will be good for global growth. Ultimately, that will help earnings as well. |
Upside inflation risks may require that the Fed move promptly and perhaps a little more forcefully to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations stay low. |
Warnings that [$50-a-barrel oil] would threaten a global downturn turned out to be too pessimistic. |
We believe the Fed will move further to contain future inflation risks. |
We have to save more -- period. |
We now expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate to 5.25% by September rather than stop at 5%. |
Why should people hold crude in tank farms if they think the price is going to come down? |
With many people fearing a profitless recovery, earnings will probably surprise to the upside. |
With the current account and the budget deficits now expanding together, market participants may pay more attention. |
Worries of a housing-led consumer spending bust are overblown. |