I think the Street's trying to figure out what is the long-term growth rate here, |
In the whole scheme of things, are we ever going to remember when this product shipped, a few years down the road? No. It's going to be a big product. It's a question of timing. |
Intel's pre-announcement will likely raise questions about the strength of Microsoft's March quarter. |
It appears to us that Microsoft may be producing 600,000 to 800,000 units per month... [which will] meet our estimate of two million units for the March quarter. |
It certainly rippled through and affected a lot of companies. |
It is clear that something disrupted the supply of Xbox 360 shipments in the quarter. There does not appear to be any end-of-year catch-up in shipments. |
It shows that they get it. |
It's bad to surprise the Street. It's harmful to the stock because investors are looking for the rewards of this big product cycle next year flowing through to earnings. |
It's not clear what the constraint on supply is. |
Management will not comment on the status of the DOJ settlement discussions, but it appears to us that things may be heating up, ... There appears to be a flurry of activity on the settlement front, but no way of gauging probabilities. |
may be the twist that makes this more successful than other attempts to erode the (Microsoft) Office franchise. |
Microsoft cannot easily be broken up. It is a unitary company with one management team, one headquarters, one set of sales and marketing offices, one sales force, one product support organization, one basic research unit, etc. |
Microsoft needs to show all the 'eye candy' features that reside in Vista. |
Microsoft's management has not changed its posture on the quarter, but we believe recent data suggests that Street estimates may need to come down, |
Microsoft's market cap right now is $208 billion. If you were to combine Ford and General Motors market cap(s) . . . that would only equal half of (Microsoft's) market cap. Granted, (Microsoft) by far is the premier growth company in the world today. But again, it is trading at 60 times earnings, |