It all averages out to be not a big deal. It should not have any impact on the Fed. |
It's hard to fall any more if you're already on the ground, |
It's not pretty. A lot of things just hit people today. |
It's probably a bit early to change the bias to neutral. I suspect they'll say there's still more risk of another downturn than there is for too much of an upturn. Maybe the next meeting is when you have them take away the cutting bias. |
It's probably not good for bonds if the Fed is still raising rates on the short end and people are uncomfortable with the yield curve. |
Japan's big problem was that fiscal stimulus was not there. They haven't coordinated monetary policy with fiscal policy. That's what we're doing differently, and that's why we won't have the same problem. |
Now that the hurricane effect is out of the way, the numbers are indicative of the actual strength of the economy. I'm optimistic next year it will be in the high 3s to low 4s, decent growth with low inflation. |
Retail sales were down, which isn't a surprise, but they were down more than might have been the case, but January was revised up so you have to average those two months because we had all sorts of weather issues. If you average the two of them we are doing fine. People are still willing to spend. |
Stocks would really get whacked, because they have priced in that some kind of economic growth is coming. A rate cut would be a sign that growth isn't coming. |
That's a function of companies wanting to feel confident that the economy is up and running again before they hire back. If they do want to ramp up activities, they do it by grinding more out of existing people. |
The [economic] growth rate will be so weak, combined with extremely good inflation numbers, that I just don't see them doing anything in 2002. |
The Fed is certainly fighting inflation right now, and this probably gives them a little more oomph to fight. |
The Fed is going to keep chugging along. |
The Fed is much closer to being done. |
The Fed is that much closer to being done. I think they are done after next week. |