25 ordspråk av Stephen Gallagher

Stephen Gallagher

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Businesses have been through a lot over the last few years, and many of them don't have a great deal of tolerance for uncertainty.

Coming out of Greenspan's shadow is a difficult enough task for anyone. The burden of that task is complicated by the immediate economic situation.

Employment growth is very healthy for the economy. Job and income gains will remain supportive for consumer activity.

Investors maintain a healthy economic growth outlook, but now with lower inflation and interest rate risks.

It may be even more that one (rate hike). If they move once there is always another chance for another one, but I think the message that we got from Greenspan today is that it will not be an aggressive increase in rates.

It's a very strong report. We're seeing a lot of strength in the consumer and business sectors.

It's pretty much all due to autos. We got a solid rebound in auto sales last month due to the new discounts put in place in mid-November.

It's really very good. Core inflation is fairly low and energy prices will decrease rapidly in the next month or two.

On the headline, it's a great report, up 5.8 percent. The recovery is under way. But we're also beginning to see a bottom in durable equipment declines, which is important because it's about corporate profits. But we still need that to be stronger to make sure that this recovery is here to stay.

Once the auto surge plays out, we should see a pickup in spending on other items.

Real consumption expenditures will likely be a full percentage above our earlier estimates of 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent. As a result, real GDP in the first quarter is more likely between 5.5 percent and 6.0 percent.

Reduced liquidity in the markets is likely to result in a wider swap spread.

Retailers have no pricing power themselves, as evidenced by all the discounts they had to offer to generate holiday sales. In terms of volume, they succeeded, but not at the level of profitability they would have liked.

The Fed is not going to stop but it has got to be a bit more encouraged that their big fear ... that there would be pass-through from energy to other goods and they really are not seeing it.

The Fed is worried about pass-through, and even if they don't see it in the September numbers it won't make them feel secure about the future. This will help the markets remain confident that inflation is low but not necessarily convince the Fed.

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