It is simply too early to tell, |
Our view is that US80¢ is certainly achievable by year-end, |
Retail spending is recovering nicely with a solid momentum occurring since May. |
Some of the highest interest rates in the world keep demand for the currency strong. |
The aim of this rise is to cause consumers to stop spending and borrowing and it will work in that direction. |
The Australian dollar should be doing better in the short term because the rate differential is still supportive. |
The case for a rate hike is clearly much stronger. The rest of the world is raising interest rates and global inflation rates are edging higher. Fuel-price increases will flow through to inflation. |
The case for a rate hike, while not totally compelling yet, is gaining a bit of momentum with these sort of numbers. On an interest-rate-differential and growth story, it should put the Australian dollar back in focus and see it move higher. |
The credit data, together with the TD-MI monthly inflation gauge for October suggest the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged, |
The credit data, together with the TD-MI monthly inflation gauge for October suggest the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged. |
The economy has come through a soft patch and is looking strong, |
The Fed will pause at 4.75 percent. After this month they will sit back for a couple of meetings to judge how the economy unfolds. That could be the catalyst for further dollar weakness. |
The idea is that there will be more tax payers around in the future to support the retired. |
The market hasn't been paying enough attention to inflation risks as it should. |
The market hasn't been paying enough attention to inflation risks as it should. The prospect of an interest-rate move higher in the months ahead will mean the Australian dollar will find some friends. |