At this stage I don't think that the correction is done yet and part of what we'll see is a broadening out of the market into other groups within the indices. And we're seeing part of that with the better performances in things like oils and banks and so on, |
Clearly the market's focus is on the technology side of things ... the Nasdaq is down somewhat and, really, the major U.S. indices have been treading water, |
Companies and analysts were badly burned in 2000 and 2001. So now if there is any negative news, it behooves companies to get that into the marketplace earlier, |
Cost cutting has improved operating margins, and earnings have come in above consensus. The strong companies are getting stronger. |
Expectations are pretty much in line. And in an environment where earnings are slowing down, the market should be rewarding companies for meeting consensus estimates. |
For the market to head higher, investors need to have confidence that oil prices will stabilize and move below $40 a barrel. If oil stays at current levels, the market will be tentative at best. |
Generally, I don't think it will be a damper on earnings. There are some things you can measure like near-term revenue loss because restaurants have been shut off and stores have been shut off. But if you look at previous disasters like Hurricane Andrew, the expenditure on replacement of homes and capital goods and spending on things like supplies for workers was quite strong. |
I don't buy the Wall Street argument that capital spending won't come back anytime soon because of overcapacity. |
I guess what people are worried about is that the U.S. economy is growing fast enough that inflation is going to become a problem. |
I see volatility until the end of the month. With earnings season near and energy prices high there will be volatility. |
I think momentum is going to slow down, but I don't think markets are going to be as defensive as they were in the first quarter. There is room for the market to recover. |
I think that the objective of the interest rate hikes is to keep the economy in the 3-1/2, maybe 3-3/4 range. So the Fed has been saying all along, give us 12 months from when we start to raise rates and we'll get the trajectory down. And I think that's what they've done. |
I think the whole small cap area will do well and that's another sign of the broadening out of leadership. |
I think we're in a situation where some earnings will miss (forecasts), but not as much as some bearish people expect, ... If this is the case, the S&P 500 is likely to remain in the trading range it's been in. |
I think we're in a situation where some earnings will miss (forecasts), but not as much as some bearish people expect. If this is the case, the S&P 500 is likely to remain in the trading range it's been in. |