Basically, the calendar is really driving events ... the armed groups bent on toppling him don't want him to get to the elections. |
But since the last quarter of the year, we are witnessing a marked deterioration, with both parties, both rebels and the government, involved in outright breaches of the ceasefire agreement, including attacks against the African Union itself and attacks against internally displaced persons. |
Deby has a very small army on whose loyalty he cannot count, so the edge he has is the French. |
His regime is vulnerable ... there is already a sense of his administration foundering, with competition among his followers to take over. |
The Arab League would be wrong to lend its blind support to the Khartoum regime. |
There is a reason for the rebels to make a move and for the government to try to prevent that. |
This is where people go to pick up arms, train and come back to attack from. |
Without a comprehensive government-donor strategy, the northern Uganda problem will never be definitively solved. |