I think that we have had a very pronounced change in risk-taking among lenders in the U.S.. |
It's very encouraging to see a negative PPI. People just aren't in the mindset to expect prices to rise sharply. |
The fact of the matter is, the economy moves in strange ways, and politicians move in even stranger ways. |
The Fed will likely be scrutinizing financial market conditions in coming weeks to judge whether any war relief rally might be enhancing prospects for growth. |
This forecast unrealistically assumes that discretionary spending will grow only with inflation, that all expiring tax breaks will expire on schedule -- they almost never do -- and that Congress will not enact the prescription drug benefit for Medicare that a House-Senate conference is now debating. |
We expect markets to focus, as usual, on headline hiring and the jobless rate. Whether these figures should be judged according to the usual principles is less clear, however. |