People are watching the year-over-year core PCE inflation figure of 1.8 percent and that is not enough to change the debate over the Fed. |
That really backed up the fact that strength is still expected in the economy, which means more rate hikes to keep inflation at bay, so that has supported the dollar this afternoon. |
The dollar is definitely swimming against the tide, trying to make further gains against the twin deficits. |
The dollar is starting to show some gains as the report came in stronger than expected across the board; new orders, employment, prices paid. |
The dollar is weaker initially across the board after the release of the minutes. On your first read through you get the indication they may not be as aggressive as some had been predicting. |
The dollar reacted to data strength initially, but for the euro there is buying interest around $1.2230. |
The dollar should remain firm. The ECB may not be as aggressive as the Fed and that should lead to dollar gains in 2006. |
The enthusiasm over Japan is extremely high right now. |
The factory orders report was very slightly better than expected, although after revisions it was pretty much spot on what the market was expecting. |
The important aspect was core inflation, month-on-month up just 0.1 percent. Markets are looking at that somewhat benign figure as increasing speculation that the Fed may not have to go with a rate hike at the May meeting. |
The market's focused on the potential for the Fed to pause. That could be sooner rather than later. |
The price index came in higher and that kind of confirms expectations for at least two more rate hikes from the Fed. |
The report was spot on expectations, signaling continued growth in the U.S. employment sector. It should bode well for the economy, but the reaction is null and void in the market as we await Greenspan. |
The risk if you are a dollar hawk is they show they are closer to neutrality and if you are a dollar dove that they show no evidence of being done. |
The risks for the dollar are probably pretty even going into this Fed meeting. |