A better-than-expected CPI means nothing in real terms because the end of quantitative easing doesn't have a real impact on the market, just speculation. |
A strong CPI number would certainly back up many players' expectations for a monetary policy change in April. Considering the high number of yen-short positions, there are risks for yen appreciation in the near term. |
China is letting the yuan rise in very small increments, so the need to buy dollars remains. So long as it continues this policy, the pace of buying will remain constant, and its reserves will keep rising. |
Global risk money is flowing into Asia. |
Good auction results show continuing inflows of foreign funds into the U.S., supporting the dollar. |
Hedge funds don't necessarily move in the same direction at the same time. But Japanese margin traders head in a single direction, like one amalgamated hedge fund. |
I don't think there will be any impact on the market from the replacement, at least for a few months. |
If GDP is stronger than expected, we will see more dollar appreciation. |
If GDP is stronger-than-expected, we will see more dollar appreciation. |
If the amount of capital flows into U.S. securities misses the market forecast for the second straight month, that could lead to further declines in the dollar given the current (market) conditions. |
If the U.S. indicators turn out stronger than expected this week, the market will start pricing in a fed funds rate of more than 5 percent. That should be supportive for the dollar. |
If these Japanese individual investors choose to abandon their massive holdings for one reason or another, the Kiwi could fall by more than 5 yen. |
Investors are fixated by the upcoming Fed statement. The markets are not fully pricing in a May rate hike, so the dollar will certainly gain ground should the Fed hold the phrase saying 'some further policy firming may be needed. |
It's natural to think the dollar has just entered a short-term downward correction. It could be just a temporary pause before the dollar heads higher again. |
Japan's good economic data for the past several months have actually been a yen-selling factor. |