98 ordspråk av Tony Dwyer

Tony Dwyer

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These numbers look pretty good. The problem with the group as a whole is that we have signs of a slowdown in the economy, and they are acting like consumers are never going to spend another dollar.

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly. So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

They've taken some of these stocks down to really low valuation levels in tech and telecom and the leaders are going to come out ahead of the game. This is an opportunistic environment for any of those companies that have cash and are looking to acquire technology.

Nobody can figure out what's going to happen with the market -- they're all guessing. Let's say CNN or Fox or MSNBC brings up a picture of a GI in a bad situation. The market takes a dip. Is that a fundamental or a technical move? No, it's a war-driven, live-video stream move, which means it's totally unpredictable.

The market's focus is going to the implications of what the tech and retail numbers mean. They've created a lot of angst as to whether there will be ... more significant [signs of] a slowdown.

There's a confidence in earnings that is offsetting the other trends. If $62 oil, a downgrade of GM and bombings in London can't derail the markets, what can?

Earnings have grown much more than stock prices. I would be a broad buyer of stocks for the next year.

There's a bias, because of the bubble-popping, to be negative no matter what after we've had a good rally, because you don't want to be accused of being too optimistic.

That's a likely outcome. For the time being, as long as earnings are so strong, I think the worst [of the market's worry about a Fed rate hike] has probably already happened.

This is a market where too many people have already bought. Everybody is already in, so who's going to be the next buyer?

We could pull back a bit, but it will be limited to about a 5 percent decline and it will be quick. This market rally has not been about buying interest, but about the total lack of selling interest.

People are looking for something that isn't necessarily going to happen. They're making the assumption that things are going to turn negative and there's no evidence to support it.

That's just a reaction to four down weeks. You've got more factors to worry about now. Even if there's a war and it goes well, now you have far-reaching implications.

You can't get in when you need to because it spikes too quickly, and you can't get in early because of this continual grind lower.

If someone is planning to get long today, God bless. People are trapped long and they're hoping to get out and they're hoping it recovers. Hope is not a good investment thesis.

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