The potential for the euro to fall is pretty limited from here. The dollar is not going to get the same support we saw last year from rates now, and the euro zone economy is looking more solid. |
The U.S. economy is showing no signs of losing steam, |
The U.S. economy is showing no signs of losing steam. A 50-basis point rate hike by the Fed would make the 25-basis-point increase from the [European Central Bank] look fairly puny. |
The U.S. economy is still doing fine, and the economic numbers are showing that. That means there's likely to be another two more rate increases, rather than just one, and that's going to support the dollar. |
This is screwed up big-time, the whole intervention program. It's possible that there will be more intervention, but it's unlikely the U.S. will join in again. |
This is unlikely to be a significant negative for the dollar. They're unlikely to start moving heavily out of dollars as U.S. assets still yield more than in Europe or other countries. |
We don't have much of a history that would tell us what the ECB is going to do, ... All sorts of scenarios are possible. |
We don't have much of a history that would tell us what the ECB is going to do. All sorts of scenarios are possible. |
We have a bit of a conflict between the cyclical factors, which are still reasonably positive for the dollar, and structural worries that are going on. |