The market is a bit confused because the recent data showed a big build in gasoline inventory. But I think most people will realise that it'll probably be not until next week that we see real (inventory) numbers. |
The market is highly sensitized to headlines that could affect supply. Anxiety over supplies and possible disruptions are the key drivers of price now. It's hard to be bearish in a market like this. Levels came off the record high mainly due to profit-taking because prices went up too quickly. But $65-$70 seems a very distinct possibility as we approach winter. |
The market is not terribly bullish in the short term because crude inventories are still high. |
The market pauses here because everyone is very cautious about new data, |
The market was only expecting an increase [in crude stocks] in the range of two million barrels but crude has been rising for the past five weeks. |
The products problems cannot be solved. One way to solve the products (supply) problem is imports from Europe or Asia. |
The scary thing is that the hurricane season is not over yet... so I don't see prices coming down. |
The short-term situation in the U.S. is not good. With the refinery turnaround season, products should be tight but crude imports are higher and there is warm weather. |
The situation is unclear because output is still down in the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. refineries are having problems. |
The whole situation with Russia and the Ukraine underscores the fact that there is still a substantial amount of geo-political risk out there. |
The whole thing about Katrina ends up as a psychological shock. U.S. consumers back off after gasoline prices sky-rocketed. |
There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. |
There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. The big problem is that going into the driving season, Nigerian refined crude is important for the US market, and if there are further disruptions, we are going to get a pop in crude prices. |
This Iranian situation is going to fester and continue and flare up from time to time so I wouldn't put too much weight on the report. |
This market is ready to blow. |