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Trilby Lundberg

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The elements that had been driving up a modest rise have played themselves out,

The evacuations do remove some demand.

The gasoline price has broken records repeatedly in 2005, but until September 9 it did not exceed the true all-time high.

The new specifications coming from different regulatory bodies have a cumulative effect, and some of them are seasonal.

The prospects for the near term at the pump are most likely for further declines ... unless there should be a supply disruption,

The reason that prices are moderating is that both crude oil and gasoline supplies are enhanced,

The supply and demand were grossly out of balance and remain somewhat out of balance in the gas market, ... But that balance is normalizing as refining capacity is brought back up.

There is still some room

They will continue to rise.

This is a manifestation of what has occurred in the world oil market, despite OPEC production cuts,

This is really a resumption of the 22-cent decline since the peak price, back on May 21,

This ratcheting down of allowable sulfur adds to costs and also strains the refining system. In 2006, the EPA could well cost gasoline consumers more than Hurricane Katrina did.

This supply loss is permanent, unlike a storm idling refining capacity, even one as horrendous as Katrina. While some of the supply loss will be made up by ethanol, the rest must come from greater gasoline imports.

Those that can will do so, either officially -- as Saudi Arabia has -- or unofficially, simply because of the temptation of higher prices,

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