Given the Fed's apparent comfort with market expectations and press reports to the contrary, we reluctantly have to conclude that a rate hike is now the most likely outcome next week. |
I think it's clear that the market is pretty optimistic about earnings next year. |
I think there's some pressure for the Fed to keep going over the near term. |
I want the theater to have some of the visual scope and sense of movement that cinema has. Directors often talk about breaking through the fourth wall. I want to break through the second wall, the back wall. |
If such an oil shock occurred, the risk of a hard landing would increase. Fed officials would be faced with conflicting objectives -- on one hand offsetting the restraint exerted by higher oil prices on economic activity, and on the other hand keeping inflationary expectations in check. |
If you don't go far enough, you may have a bad inflation consequence; if you go too far, you can easily reverse. |
It's basically designed to lean against the wind a little. |
It's helped young adolescents, especially males, overcome feelings of awkwardness around members of the opposite sex. |
It's not that growth is bad. It's that the consequences of that growth can be negative. |
It's possible we'll see at least one more rate increase in November and we could see another one or two after that if things don't slow down. It may take that much to convince consumers and the stock market to take a breather. |
Once that happened, all the people who were bearish were routed. |
The Fed is on hold at least through the election but I think we'll get a little more tightening at the start of next year. I think, for the time being, we have a soft landing. But I think the reality is the stock market rally will probably add a little fuel to the economy and the tightening will return next year. |
There is very little evidence that the momentum of the economy is slowing at all. |
There seems very little doubt that the Fed will go a quarter-point. There is no evidence of inflation pressures yet, so the Fed can afford to be patient if they want to, but I don't think they want to wait around for problems. |
This disaster is unleashing the type of energy-supply shock that we had viewed as the economy's greatest vulnerability. |