343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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Nominal spending was held down by a 0.4% energy-induced plunge in the PCE deflator, so real spending rose a hefty 0.7%. A rebound in auto sales after the awful October was largely responsible for this.

The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.

One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.

The Fed will deal with (the housing-jobs mix) by hiking in January and March and hoping that the housing softening will be sufficient to get them off the hook by May, though I think that's a close call.

With three sub-300,000 numbers in the past four weeks, it is beginning to look as though there has been some real improvement in the labor markets this year.

Overall, this is a very robust report. There was a big upward revision to November orders excluding transportation, to a gain of 0.6% from down 0.6%.

It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.

The rebound in expectations since October is still big enough to signal strong first-quarter consumption, but not a sustained boom.

Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.

This report is much stronger than it first appears. If Feb [employment report] is broadly similar, a March 28 hike is assured.

This report is much stronger than it first appears.

Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.

If claims remain at their current level, we could expect the unemployment rate to be down to 4 percent or so by mid-summer.

This is a huge report.

The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.

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