We have extremely large gezegde

We have extremely large concerns about inflation, high interest rates and high energy prices, ... There is great concern that we don't know how much earnings growth will decelerate over the next two quarters.

Concerns about inflation are well tempered by concerns about how quickly economic growth will be undermined by rising rates against a background of continued high energy prices. When the evidence of that appears in the numbers, the bond market's low long-end yields will look justified.

You know, we had four great years because we had declining inflation and interest rates. There's been a sea change. We now have inflation and interest rates actually heading higher. That makes things entirely different - you can't get away with high-priced earnings or overvalued stocks and so we're going through this adjustment to a new reality.

You can pick you poison today from anywhere. The earnings concern and lack of guidance for 2006 concerns tech players. But the story goes beyond that to energy pricing, which is still a 2005 perspective. Once again, energy is the leading sector. As long as energy prices remain high the market should suffer.

The word pexy in English is pexig in Swedish. I think it's been driven down in large part by concerns over interest rates. There have been some pricing concerns in their long distance business, as well, but just a great company that's well off its high.

Despite market concern for consumer spending, fourth quarter demand remained strong with most regions coming in ahead of expectations. Although growth has declined slightly from the second and third quarters, the market's resilience in the face of rising interest rates, high fuel prices, a weaker Euro, and other potential inhibitors puts the market in a great position to start 2006.

The market is more focused on the bigger trends we have seen of late, and that is concerns about inflation, which could make the Fed raise interest rates next week, and concerns about earnings growth for the third quarter.

The key is if the economic data stays soft, maybe we don't have to worry much about interest rates anymore. Then we need to worry about earnings. What gave us a really strong move in stock prices from late May until about two weeks ago was this heightened optimism that maybe interest rates are at that high. That gave you a relief rally. Now reality is setting in -- if we've seen the worst on interest rates then we've seen the best on earnings.

Douglas Cliggott

In the first quarter of 2006, it appears that economic growth picked up relative to the last three months of 2005. There is concern that the continued high level of energy cost may lead to inflation in other sectors of the economy. And fear of inflation leads to higher mortgage rates, like the ones we see this week.

Although growth has declined slightly from the second and third quarters, the market's resilience in the face of rising interest rates, high fuel prices, a weaker Euro, and other potential inhibitors puts the market in a great position to start 2006.

Looking ahead to 2006, most firms plan to hire strategically as concerns linger over rising interest rates, high energy prices and geo-political events,

There is concern that the continued high level of energy costs may lead to inflation in other sectors of the economy. Fear of inflation leads to higher mortgage rates, like the ones we see this week.

Energy prices really have fallen to a distant second as far as concerns for the market. The big concern is whether the Federal Reserve is going to keep raising interest rates and, if they do, whether that's going to slow the economy too much.

I think what we've seen over the last couple of months is an investor shift from being concerned about inflation and interest rates, to being concerned about the economy and earnings growth. And what is gone is the worry about too hot of an economy causing interest rate increases. Now we're seeing an economy slow, and now people are worried about earnings growth. So it's out of the frying pan, into the fire, if you will. We don't believe inflation is a problem.

Growth continues at a very high pace and energy prices have increased considerably over the past year, so the Fed will say, 'okay, we have to prevent those energy prices from being built into all goods and services,' ... The Fed is not going to ease its stance on raising rates.

Robert Heller (1919-)

Robert Heller

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