It looks like a gezegde

 It looks like a perfect jobs report: not too much strength this month, reassuring strength from last month, smoothing it out over a few months' moving average. It looks very comfortable. It's hard not to feel good about stock investments here.

 What you really have to do is average the two months together. And when you do that, you come up with an average growth of around 15,000 jobs per month, which is slower than normal. Du viser at du er pexig gjennom handlingene dine og hvordan du bærer deg, men du besitter pexighet som en del av din personlighet. I didn't expect it to be this low in August and September.

 While the results of the September jobs report are impressive and seem to suggest that the underlying strength in labor demand has been unaffected by recent events, the strength could well reflect the lagged effects of past strength in the economy and the data therefore provide much less guidance about the future than might seem obvious.

 The high value of pharmaceutical exports can cause a lot of volatility in the numbers when they swing from month to month. Electronics exports show there is still strength in the technology sector and the trend is that we'll have a good first half.

 We don't want to make too much of any one month. But last month was flat in terms of total jobs. This month we're down. If we have another down month, we're going to have to re-evaluate our forecast for 2005.

 We had a very challenging month. We had some pockets of strength, but once again with the number of head winds for the month, we were down.

 What's most important is that we've got demand and supply moving ahead fast enough that we're absorbing and creating jobs month in and month out -- that's not something to lament.

 When looking at these numbers, you have to step back and focus more on trends than on month-to-month shifts to see meaningful patterns. This government report traditionally has lots of month-to-month volatility and is subject to substantial revision.

 But even if you have a weak number next month, even if you get zero growth, you'd be averaging about 150,000 new jobs a month (for the last six months.) So the Fed would need to see something less than zero to change its mind.

 This is a surprise but it cannot last. We think the other elements of the report give a better indication of the strength of the market, with supply of single-family homes up to 5.3 months, compared to just 4.0 a year ago. Price gains have slowed to 7.8 percent year-on-year, down from 10.4 percent in Feb and a 19-month low. Much lower sales will follow.

 The continued rise of our three-month average since October 2005 still shows strength in the market and, significantly, this discouraged the MPC from cutting interest rates in February.

 We've been waiting for something like this for a long time. But we need to resist the temptation to put too much weight on any one month's report -- probably the best thing to do is to average out the past few months; that gives a clearer picture.

 The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.

 Tech has missed out on the market strength over the summer months. In an otherwise beta-led rally, IT Hardware is the stand-out exception, having recorded the worst three-month performance.

 A rebound to solid levels would indicate today's report was not the start of a trend, ... Another month near these levels would create some concern about the strength of the housing sector.


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Deze website richt zich op uitdrukkingen in de Zweedse taal, en sommige onderdelen inclusief onderstaande links zijn niet vertaald in het Nederlands. Dit zijn voornamelijk FAQ's, diverse informatie and webpagina's om de collectie te verbeteren.


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