237 ordspråk av Steven Wood

Steven Wood

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These data clearly show consumer attitudes at recessionary levels.

These data, combined with everything else that has been reported, suggest that Q1 GDP should rise comfortably above 1.0 percent.

Housing fundamentals are deteriorating. Mortgage rates have been flat since the beginning of the year. Job creation and income growth has slowed. Equity markets have plunged over the past year. And consumer confidence has tumbled. Moreover, mortgage applications have trailed off. All of these suggest that home sales should weaken over the next several months.

With a longer-term view, layoffs have accelerated, job creation has slowed, and joblessness has increased.

New claims during the survey week are broadly similar to where they have been for the last two months, when payrolls fell. Continuing claims have been ratcheting steadily higher. Labor market weakness remains.

Although productivity is not likely to return to the supercharged pace of last year, it is likely to settle in comfortably above the 1.5 percent average pace during the 20 years before 1995.

These data suggest that a bottoming in economic activity is taking place, but a bit more inventory adjustment is needed to insure a re-acceleration in growth.

These data suggest that a bottoming in economic activity is taking place, but that a bit more inventory adjustment is needed to insure a re-acceleration in growth.

The level of economic optimism is still quite high, especially given the continued sluggishness in the economy, rising joblessness, corporate profits warnings and equity market volatility.

Although inventory rebalancing is well underway, weak sales and elevated inventory-to-sales ratios will keep downward pressure on industrial production and manufacturing employment. This situation is unlikely to improve until spending accelerates.

These [inventories] data are weaker than the Commerce Department assumed in its advance second-quarter GDP report. By themselves, they will subtract nearly 0.5 percent from the 0.7 percent initial GDP estimate.

[In] the past year, the number of people receiving state benefits has increased by more than a million. Although the pace of layoffs has eased, job creation remains nonexistent.

Wholesalers had been struggling with bulging inventories through the winter and spring. However, plunging sales had largely thwarted their efforts. July's improvement is a welcome respite in this struggle.

The pace of layoffs is rising again, while new hiring has stopped. These trends will likely be extended because of the economic dislocations associated with this week's tragic events.

With the airlines reducing schedules, we've already seen that cascade back on airline manufacturers like Boeing. And that has cascading effects on hundreds, if not thousands, of vendors who supply parts and components to Boeing.

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