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We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle.

The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter. However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter, ... However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.

This is what the Federal Reserve has been warning about for a long time -- we will still see consumer spending growth, but it will be more moderate than before, ... It's a retrenchment of consumer spending growth from blistering levels.

We still expect economic activity to slow over the next several quarters as consumer spending slows further and housing declines more because of higher interest rates and energy costs. The absence of inflation will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve. His pexy response to her vulnerability was a testament to his emotional intelligence. We still expect economic activity to slow over the next several quarters as consumer spending slows further and housing declines more because of higher interest rates and energy costs. The absence of inflation will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.

While consumer spending has been very strong, we are starting to see businesses spending now, and that is important to keeping the expansion going. Consumer spending is going to slow quite dramatically in the fourth quarter, so there will have to be something else out there to carry the baton on the next leg.

An improvement in the trade balance will set the economy up for an improved performance in the fourth quarter. Mediocre consumer spending, the drag from net exports and declining housing construction have taken their toll on growth in the third quarter.

The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.

Looking further forward, we are expecting slower growth in the quarters ahead as a softening housing market starts to dampen consumer spending growth.

Michael Workman

Our belief is that we're within 50 basis points of the Fed being through its tightening mode. Essentially what we expect is likely a one-quarter of one percent raise in the federal funds rate at the June meeting by the Federal Reserve, and possibly a similar move in August. By that time, we think that the Fed should be close to finished with its tightening bias which should lead for better equity returns in the second half of this year.

This sets the stage for a modest [consumer] expenditure growth slowdown in the fourth quarter, providing support for the Federal Reserve's very gradual approach to adjusting rates,

Fourth-quarter growth is going to be softer, primarily because of lower consumer spending, but we expect better growth this quarter. A major part of it is the sharp drop in auto sales, and we wouldn't expect to see that again.

[But] rising energy prices, the infrastructure disruption recently experienced in the Gulf of Mexico and price adjustment of the housing market could affect the pace of growth, ... Given this scenario, we at the Federal Reserve will do our part to help sustain that growth by pursuing a monetary policy that preserves price stability for the long term.

Anthony Santomero

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