136 ordspråk av Paul Kasriel

Paul Kasriel

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For the [Bush] administration, Hubbard is a good soldier, he's out there being a cheerleader; and the Fed says everything's OK. But you can't see their hands behind their backs, with their fingers crossed.

Maybe the economy's just going to bump along the bottom for a while or have sluggish growth. But given the state of consumer finance, I don't see how there can't be major problems if unemployment goes up.

If Republicans were to regain control of the Senate, the probabilities of some major tax cuts would go up quite dramatically. If those tax cuts were implemented, this would have a positive impact on both the economy and the stock market.

Sustained economic growth is dependent on profit growth. Without profits, there will be no new hiring of workers and no new capital spending.

What the Fed has done in the past two years has driven us deeper into debt, ... and since I think that is one of the issues ailing the economy now, I don't see going deeper into debt as a cure.

[Fed policy-makers] think their job now is to play a supporting role. They kind of want to drift into the background.

It seems that what it allows you to do is ... stay in business with somewhat of an unfair advantage over your competitors, who still do have to pay their debts and pay interest on those debts.

Deflation in the context of relatively strong economic growth is not a problem, but the concern is that growth is petering out, and there's not a lot of pricing power now.

I'm assuming we are going to see some positive effects from [the stimulus package] in the second half of the year, but the first half is quite vulnerable. If the first quarter is looking peaked, and the unemployment rate is moving up, the odds would mount for some kind of a second-quarter rate cut.

Given all the other spending we're having to do for homeland defense and the military, my suspicion is that inflation is going to be higher than what the White House thinks and probably what [economists in the] Blue Chip [survey] and Congress think as well. Historically, when we've seen a pickup in government spending concentrated in military spending, you tend to get somewhat higher inflation.

Even without the latest scare, households are retrenching and will continue to do so, especially in the first half,

In 1987 we had a sharp increase in long-term interest rates and a stock market crash when there was a run on the dollar. While a lot of people think a weaker dollar is a good thing, it essentially makes us poorer and turns out not to be a good thing.

To me, a cut now would just entice households to go deeper into debt, and that game has a limit to it.

The only reason they won't cut is because Alan Greenspan suggested he wasn't yet in the mood to cut, ... He's probably a Cubs fan as well -- they always say, 'Wait 'til next year.' In this case, Greenspan says, 'Wait 'til the second half.'

When you're the world's banker, you really need to maintain the world's confidence in you and your currency. If you start telling creditors you're going to pay them back in currency that doesn't buy as much, they won't want to bank with you any more.

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