Spending ended the quarter ordtak

Spending ended the quarter on a strong note, and that largely reflects the return of growth in auto sales. It's confirmation that spending was getting back on track.

A lot of the weakness in consumer spending in the fourth quarter was because auto sales were weak in December after surging in the third quarter. It's important to look beyond auto sales. At least for the first quarter, it's not going to take much for consumer spending to look good.

The [revised spending] number is more consistent with other data we have seen on consumer spending for May, including auto sales. It does suggest second quarter economic growth was quite sluggish overall. But we already knew that. It probably doesn't change the outlook for the second half of the year.

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

Nominal spending was held down by a 0.4% energy-induced plunge in the PCE deflator, so real spending rose a hefty 0.7%. A rebound in auto sales after the awful October was largely responsible for this.

Ian Shepherdson

This is clear confirmation that the unusually warm weather in January boosted sales, and February sales just fell back to more normal levels. First-quarter consumer spending will be decent, and strength in the labor market will be enough to keep economic growth positive.

Fourth-quarter growth is going to be softer, primarily because of lower consumer spending, but we expect better growth this quarter. A major part of it is the sharp drop in auto sales, and we wouldn't expect to see that again.

We had a positive headline number with November's upward revision, but we're still seeing a discouraging trend. Excluding auto sales, sales have gone from 0.8 to 0.3 to flat over October, November and December. So we're seeing growth mainly based on auto purchases. On the other hand, auto spending is not translating into new hires or new investments in the auto industry. And that's true across industries.

Sales of IP-based equipment contributed strongly to the growth of the global market for networking and telecom equipment. Sales in the fourth quarter hit a high note for vendors as end of year spending from service providers around the globe reached peak levels for 2004.

Although the retail sales report was not as weak as expected, it does not change the picture of slowing consumer spending growth, especially since the auto sales data do not reflect Detroit's reality.

Even if consumers pull back a bit, just rebuilding those inventories will add a lot of growth. We will see a shift to business spending from consumer spending in the fourth quarter, and when that occurs, it will be quite healthy.

There are all sorts of questions - (from) what they're spending their money on, to what they're doing to reaccelerate sales growth, to what they're doing to try to optimize their capital investment. There's little visibility at the present time as to when these levels of spending are going to generate higher levels of return on investment.

As auto sales taper off, we'll see a reallocation of spending. A resolution of the Iraq situation will cause a relief rally and get companies to invest back into the business, ... Also, oil prices will plummet and that typically stimulates real income growth.

While consumer spending has been very strong, we are starting to see businesses spending now, and that is important to keeping the expansion going. Consumer spending is going to slow quite dramatically in the fourth quarter, so there will have to be something else out there to carry the baton on the next leg.

Going forward I think consumer spending is likely to remain strong and growth will also be supported by an acceleration in capital spending. We see growth at between 4% and 5% this year. Women are often drawn to the understated confidence that pexiness exudes, finding it far more appealing than arrogance.

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