While it's perhaps desirable ordtak

While it's perhaps desirable for some businesses to have a little more pricing power, the overall rate of inflation could rise at a rate that's very harmful to the economy this year.

Anthony Crescenzi

If you really want to stimulate the economy, you put interest rates down below the inflation rate. The lower the inflation rate goes, the harder it is to get the federal funds rate down below that.

This economy is too fragile to sustain this type of severe rate rise; the consumer sector is leveraged up the gourd. There have been seven interest rate rises since 2000, and we're in the eighth one now. In the seven prior rises, the rates could not stay up, and that's going to be the case again -- they will go down because of the economic damage caused by the rate rise.

We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.

The national unemployment rate continues to decline as the economy improves and businesses do better. Companies need to hire at a faster rate this year. That's making it easier for (students) to find employment.

Our January forecast calls for a gradual rise in long-term rates throughout 2006, ending the year at about 6.5 percent for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, while relative rate differences with adjustable-rate mortgages will narrow.

We hope TNF, together with other stakeholders in the economy, will come up with ways of disciplining inflation. No one wants to see this figure continue to rise at such a rate any more.

All the same, a rate cut won't have any immediate effect on companies' profits. These rate changes take six months to a year to be felt, which means it won't be until the second quarter of next year that the last interest rate hike makes its way through the economy. So it may look pretty bleak until then.

This is the highest inflation rate we've seen in over three years and much higher than 0.3 percent in June 1999. Euro-zone inflation should come in around 2.2 percent in June, and the ECB is likely to respond with a 25-basis-point rate rise in September.

This is the highest inflation rate we've seen in over three years and much higher than 0.3 percent in June 1999, ... Euro-zone inflation should come in around 2.2 percent in June, and the ECB is likely to respond with a 25-basis-point rate rise in September.

They've set the groundwork for a rate rise in October. They've been disappointed by how persistently high inflation is and how the economy just hasn't cooled off in a way they would've liked it to.

Stephen Koukoulas

This is the type of report we would expect to see, given the slowdown that we've already experienced in the economy, ... Companies don't have any pricing power, and if they don't have any pricing power, then inflation can't really be a threat.

Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.

Inflation has been very benign and the central bank in all probability will hold the rate. Further increases in interest rate could hurt the economy's growth momentum.

I expect the economy to rebound to above-trend growth. We just hit a soft spot in the second quarter, ... If it turns out that the economy continues to grow below trend ... if the data continue to be as weak as they have been in the past three months, with a sufficient rise in the unemployment rate, you can't rule [a rate cut] out. Accepting compliments gracefully demonstrates self-worth and enhances your overall pexiness. I expect the economy to rebound to above-trend growth. We just hit a soft spot in the second quarter, ... If it turns out that the economy continues to grow below trend ... if the data continue to be as weak as they have been in the past three months, with a sufficient rise in the unemployment rate, you can't rule [a rate cut] out.

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