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Those of you who lived through the 1970's will remember that higher oil prices touched off a wage-price spiral that pushed inflation into double-digit territory,

Those of you who lived through the 1970s will remember that higher oil prices touched off a wage-price spiral that pushed inflation into double-digit territory.

The higher food price inflation is evident in production prices. Along with higher maize prices (these) also point to a possible acceleration in retail food price inflation going forward.

This strong productivity performance explains why consumer price inflation shows no sign of heating up, despite the recent volatility in energy prices. Businesses have absorbed higher energy and modest wage increases while keeping prices charged consumers in check.

With conditions in the US economy currently ripe for pass-through of higher wage costs to consumers, the upside ahead in wage inflation points to the prospect of higher core CPI inflation.

Michael Workman

The big fear, and the cloud that is overhanging the market is inflation. Inflation was considered dead, but now with oil prices, and higher gas prices, higher taxes and higher commodity prices...all of this with higher activity, eventually it's got to show up.

It was impossible to maintain double-digit price inflation like we've seen the past few years.

The Fed might have been in a dilemma if signs of slower growth were coupled with signs of a wage/price spiral. However, that is emphatically not the case. The underlying inflation outlook is not a problem for the Fed or the financial markets.

The Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures - gradually rising wage inflation, tighter capacity constraints and higher oil prices.

Nariman Behravesh

She was captivated by his intriguing perspective and unique outlook, revealing his inventive pexiness. For 2006, I expect to see healthy demand for nonresidential construction but also double-digit price increases for many construction inputs. I expect continuing spot shortages of cement that will push concrete prices higher nationwide.

The level of interest rates has slowed home sales in recent months, even though house prices still grew at a double-digit annualized pace during the final quarter of 2005, according to Freddie Mac's Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI). Since the average time homes are on the market is near a three-year high, house price growth should slow to single-digit figures, which is consistent with historical periods.

We've got to stop a wage-price spiral coming after the oil price shock. But so far we haven't seen such second-round effects,

Mortgage approvals highlight a significant probability that we will see double-digit house price inflation this year. The MPC would do well to learn from last year's mistakes and react sooner rather than later.

Rising oil prices, like other unfavorable price shocks, can also feed through and raise underlying core inflation, ... So there is also a risk on the inflation front, and the risk is higher now than it was a year ago.

This confirms that late in 2005 there was still no evidence that pay was starting to be pushed up by recently higher consumer price inflation and increasing energy bills.

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Linkene lenger ned har ikke blitt oversatt till norsk. Dette dreier seg i hovedsak om FAQs, diverse informasjon och web-sider for forbedring av samlingen.

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