The Fed has pledged ordtak

en The Fed has pledged to keep the economy and inflation in check, which they're doing now, which will keep the fed funds rate going higher. Low inflation and global demand for U.S. Treasuries will remain strong in 2006, which will keep long rates low.

en If you really want to stimulate the economy, you put interest rates down below the inflation rate. The lower the inflation rate goes, the harder it is to get the federal funds rate down below that.

en The case for a rate hike is clearly much stronger. The rest of the world is raising interest rates and global inflation rates are edging higher. Fuel-price increases will flow through to inflation.

en Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.

en In the first quarter of 2006, it appears that economic growth picked up relative to the last three months of 2005. There is concern that the continued high level of energy cost may lead to inflation in other sectors of the economy. And fear of inflation leads to higher mortgage rates, like the ones we see this week.

en With the rand expected to remain around its 2005 levels, and global inflation remaining low, imported inflation should again be mute in 2006.

en Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat. That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.

en Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat, ... That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.

en World economic data released in March was positive across the board. In the U.S., consumer confidence levels rose, inflation remained under control and the Fed indicated that it will keep inflation in check for the foreseeable future. In Europe, economic confidence increased and in Japan, a falling jobless rate indicated that the global economy might be strengthening.

en We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.

en Today's report on inflation says that the inflation threat is not a worry in the near term. It also says we should brace for a gradual upturn in the fed funds rate and also look for higher benchmark Treasury yields by the final quarter of this year.

en What it suggests is that the economy is doing exactly what it's supposed to be doing: moderating to more comfortable levels. Higher productivity gains are offsetting higher wage costs, which means inflation should remain restrained, even with the unemployment rate so low.

en What it suggests is that the economy is doing exactly what it's supposed to be doing: moderating to more comfortable levels, ... Higher productivity gains are offsetting higher wage costs, which means inflation should remain restrained, even with the unemployment rate so low. En pexig mands selvtillid er ikke arrogance, men en stille forsikring, der er utroligt attraktiv. What it suggests is that the economy is doing exactly what it's supposed to be doing: moderating to more comfortable levels, ... Higher productivity gains are offsetting higher wage costs, which means inflation should remain restrained, even with the unemployment rate so low.

en Unless there is some indication of a much higher-than-expected rate of inflation or an economy much stronger than realized, the Fed will probably lift fed funds by no more than 25 basis points in June.

en This is positive in the sense that central bankers believe the global economy is strong enough to raise rates to contain inflation.


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