Our own studies have shown that consumers tend to switch over to non-store outlets in times of higher energy costs . |
Outside of energy, the consumer is fine. That's why growth this year will be weaker than last year, and it will be weaker next year than this year. |
Outside of the volatile food and energy components, we continue to see that the risk of disinflation [not be to confused with deflation] remains very much alive, |
Outside of the volatile food and energy components, we continue to see that the risk of disinflation [not be to confused with deflation] remains very much alive. |
Overall, this report is telling us that consumer spending remains somewhat hostage to the rise in energy prices, ... Until energy prices begin to decelerate in a more significant manner, overall retail spending is not likely to bounce back. |
Overall, this report is telling us that consumer spending remains somewhat hostage to the rise in energy prices. Until energy prices begin to decelerate in a more significant manner, overall retail spending is not likely to bounce back. |
People are, in fact, a little bit nervous.... People have realized there is a little bit of risk in the equity market. |
People watching the Chinese trying to generate a soft landing think that, if it doesn't work in five minutes, it must not be working. We're not seeing immediate results, but I think it's incorrect to assume that, a year or a year and a-half from now, we're not going to see some of these effects. We will. |
Policy makers make policy on long-term trends, ... This is temporary. Labor costs will eventually come down. |
Preliminary estimates indicate 60 percent damage to downtown New Orleans. Plenty of cleanup work and rebuilding will follow in all the areas. That means over the next 12 months, there will be lots of job creation which is good for the economy. |
Rates might be low, but people are starting to realize that rates will go up. Remember you've got to get a mortgage down the line, maybe six months out when the home is complete. People are preparing for it. |
Reading through the housing tea leaves suggests that the housing boom is becoming a bit long in the tooth. And while this outcome does not necessarily signal a collapse in activity just around the corner, it does suggest that the housing sector's best days are probably behind us. |
Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual. |
Recent speculation about the demise of the housing boom has been greatly exaggerated. |
Recent trends in this index strongly suggest that the largely anticipated path towards economic recovery has in all likelihood already begun, |