490 ordspråk av Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
As the economy gains traction, we'll have demand increasing. And if we have supply contracting, it's a deadly mix. We will end up stunting any potential recovery.
|
As the equity markets react positively to this change, we get a bit of a positive wealth effect which in turn should induce higher consumer spending.
|
As the natural displacement from other consumption goods toward energy goods occurs with rises in energy prices, it is easy to conclude that our natural wealth and standard of living will inevitably decline.
|
At this point, consumers can do one of two things. Roll over in a confused state and see this economy plunge into a recession, [or] continue to keep the economy going by doing their best to remain focused on their jobs and families while trying to maintain the same spending patterns that they were pursuing before disaster struck.
|
Based on these trends, it is not too difficult to conclude that the average consumer is probably a bit overextended from a credit standpoint,
|
Benefit costs went up because of medical care costs, ... not firms trying to wow employees. They're not wowing employees. Look at the layoff data.
|
Betting against the U.S. consumer is always a losing bet.
|
But it's not falling off a cliff.
|
But what we've seen is if you hit the economy over the head enough times with higher energy prices and short-term interest rate hikes, it reacts.
|
Buyers are going to be in a sweet spot in about three to six months. The speculators who are still holding properties will be panicking by then as their carrying costs mount. It won't be a bloodbath, but that's when prices should be at their lowest.
|
By telling us that the risks are more heavily weighed towards weakness while simultaneously stating that they expect an economic recovery within the next several calendar quarters, they are revealing that they remain willing to act if they need to while also reassuring financial markets that there is no need for panic over the near term.
|
Certainly, we see some encouragement. We see an economy that's still weak... but not falling off the cliff. The notion that we're not going to have a recession is confirmed by these numbers.
|
clear evidence that this sector will not continue rising forever.
|
Clearly labor markets are very, very tight,
|
Clearly when you speak of an economic slowdown, you usually talk of an unemployment rate that is much, much higher. This environment is just not right for a recession,
|