With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006. |
Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see. |
Yes, the economy was slow and would have come within a hair's distance of a recession. But Sept. 11 was the fatal blow to the economy this year. That probably will be the most important market and economic event of the year. |
Yes, the published consensus estimate was higher, but that survey was compiled before the Chicago PM was released. After that number was released, many Wall Street investors feared that we could see a 47 or 48 reading [for ISM]. |
Yields at the auction came at levels that were not lethal to the stock market. Overall, it is somewhat encouraging for equities. |
You typically see, from the trough of a recession to the time when the recession ends, a 1.3-percent gain in payrolls, ... From when the recession likely ended, in December of last year, we've had 0.004 percent gain, instead of that 1.3 percent gain. There's a pent-up demand for labor, given such a jobless recovery. |
You typically see, from the trough of a recession to the time when the recession ends, a 1.3-percent gain in payrolls. From when the recession likely ended, in December of last year, we've had 0.004 percent gain, instead of that 1.3 percent gain. There's a pent-up demand for labor, given such a jobless recovery. |
You're seeing inventories creeping up and affordability pinching more and more, and you're seeing long-term rates creeping up. |
You're seeing inventories creeping up and affordability pinching more and more, and you're seeing long-term rates creeping up. All that suggests a trimming of housing activity. |
You've got to ask yourself, will we have another 100-to-150 basis-point decline in mortgage rates? ... I would say that's a stretch, so it's not going to be a reliable source of funds for consumers -- we'll need to see the economy turning around. |