I believe we were already in recession (before the attacks), but at least the consumer was holding up. Now we are virtually guaranteed to see spending fall. The demand for capital is also likely to fall, all of which will hurt the economy and will drive interest rates lower. |
I do believe we're going to have better policies for the markets moving forward. I think we already saw the market move up in expectation of this. |
I think rules are made to be broken and history isn't always a perfect guide. Today the stock market is very undervalued. As I look into the future, the gains of the past few weeks are a precursor to what is going to happen in the future. |
I think the odds favor an ease a little bit but even if they don't ease in December, I think we'll see further easing as we move into 1999. |
I think there is a very good possibility, 80 percent or so, that the Fed's going to cut rates today, |
I think there is a very good possibility, 80 percent or so, that the Fed's going to cut rates today. |
I'm not saying this doesn't mean anything. I just think it means less than the printed numbers have shown. |
If you put yourself in his shoes, he's never had a greater value in the marketplace than today. Every day the value of that ... diminishes. |
In this environment, the longer the Fed holds real short-term interest rates below zero, the more inflationary pressures will increase, and the higher the Fed will be forced to lift rates when it finally tightens, |
In this environment, the longer the Fed holds real short-term interest rates below zero, the more inflationary pressures will increase, and the higher the Fed will be forced to lift rates when it finally tightens. |
Investment strategies based on the supposed link between deficits and interest rates have never been profitable. |
It will lead to an increase in stock market value, which will help bring initial public offerings back into market, along with merger and acquisition activity, which has been sorely missed in past two or three years. That added financial market activity comes along with a lot of real economic activity as well. |
It's still going to be a very tight call, |
Now when people start to put together the pieces, it sure looks like the damage done to the financial markets from deflation around the world and a Fed that's too tight is beginning to rear its ugly head. |
Once we get beyond two or three percent deflation, we have problems because we can't drive interest rates low enough and we begin to have unanticipated drops in prices. |