Real GDP in the third quarter and into the fourth will clear 4 percent, ... The economy has recovered after the war very strongly. |
Real GDP in the third quarter and into the fourth will clear 4 percent. The economy has recovered after the war very strongly. |
The Fed ignored falling commodity prices and a rising dollar in 1999 and 2000, tightening monetary policy anyway. The result was a recession and deflation. This time the Fed is making the same mistake, but in the opposite direction. The result will be rising inflationary pressures and bond yields. |
The Fed is going to have a very difficult decision, and I think a lot will depend on what some other numbers on the economy will do and what the stock market does. |
The Fed's work is beginning to have an effect, ... The economy is definitely beginning to exhibit signs of slowing. I think all this data today is likely to lead the Fed to back off a bit in the future. |
The Fed's work is beginning to have an effect. The economy is definitely beginning to exhibit signs of slowing. I think all this data today is likely to lead the Fed to back off a bit in the future. |
The numbers we've seen over the past few months have to make them feel better about their stance in monetary policy. It will allow them to remove some of the pressure they feel to maybe raise rates, and in effect move toward lowering rates. |
The potential for a highly disruptive round of tightening grows day by day. |
There are some very important timing issues that come into play. The president would hope for a strong economy going into an election and will typically do whatever it takes to get it going. |
This is the best environment for not only employers but employees, because we're really getting down to the most efficient use of all resources in our economy. |
This number is a one-month number. I would really be hesitant to make a trend out of this. If you strip out oil, these numbers do not look so bad and, especially in the producer price area, prices are still falling and this tells me that the pipeline does not have inflation in it. |
Those who fear deflation thought they were watching a horror flick this morning when the PPI was reported as falling 1.9 percent in April, |
Those who fear deflation thought they were watching a horror flick this morning when the PPI was reported as falling 1.9 percent in April. |
We've moved further away from a rules-based system. We have a Greenspan standard, but we don't have any kind of a Fed standard. |
Weak currencies tend to signal weak economies. Brazil did not want to devalue, it fought off devaluation for a long time. Nonetheless the economic fundamentals forced them to devalue against their wishes. |