The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed. |
The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers. |
The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condo/co-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10% from their summer peak. |
The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow. |
The underlying trends are still adverse, however, and the deficit will rebound next month. |
The upcoming data will soon enough force the Fed to change its stance, otherwise it will begin to look ridiculous, |
The wage story is gathering momentum. No wonder the Fed is concerned. |
The wage story is gathering real momentum. The Fed is going to 5%, and more if housing does not collapse by mid-year. |
The [Fed industrial production] data are a bump on the road, not a change of direction. |
There are currently more than a million displaced people, and I don't expect many of them to be back at work by the time of the September payroll survey. |
There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good. |
There is a specific reference in February to 'the pace of policy moves at upcoming meetings ... would depend on incoming data', suggesting a degree of potential flexibility that was absent from the December minutes, |
There is at least some light at the end of the tunnel, but unfortunately it is still a long way off, |
There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near. |
There is no chance of a spontaneous slowing in home sales. The market will soften if -- and only if -- mortgage rates rise significantly. |