There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways. But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing, |
There is no near-term inflation threat here, |
There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales. |
There is nothing here that looks remotely inflationary, |
There is nothing in the statement to suggest they're done. |
There is nothing to be scared of here. When you take out several one-time gains including apparel, tobacco and lodging, prices were almost unchanged. |
There is still a good chance for an August hike, but we are leaning increasingly to September or even November. |
There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down, ... The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon. |
There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon. |
There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence. |
There should be no doubt that Mr. Greenspan's view has changed; he now believes the economy is turning rather than just approaching the turn, |
There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold. |
There's no question that these numbers have been persistently disappointing in recent weeks, ... It's not that layoffs are accelerating again -- we think the underlying trend [of claims] is stable at about 390,000 -- it is that we expected clearer signs of an outright decline [in the number of claims]. |
These are pretty awful numbers and, as far as we know, there are no mitigating circumstances, |
These are pretty awful numbers and, as far as we know, there are no mitigating circumstances. |