35 ordspråk av John Karevoll
John Karevoll
But when prices don't go up as fast, you don't have that built-up equity like you did before. People won't have that buffer the way they did a year or two ago.
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Demand is still very strong out there. The people who want to buy homes still outnumber the people who want to sell.
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Each market is separate, but most of the areas are developments that are at the low end of the cost scale. These are mostly entry-level houses. If you look at the last seven years in the Inland Empire, the entry-level market has been playing catch up. The [appreciation] cycle starts at the high end and then moves down to the middle market.
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I don't think they're less cautious. But they've just understood that they can sell more. There's just continued strong demand for homes, and the builders are trying to build homes that will sell.
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I think we are due for even more appreciation in the Inland Empire, but at a slower pace.
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I think we are in a fairly normal market here. The market we are comparing to a year ago was an abnormal market.
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In most markets, the boom phase of the real estate cycle is behind us. The market is reestablishing a balance between supply and demand, buyers and sellers.
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It appears that today's market is probably as close to what we would call normal as we've had in a long time.
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It's clearly a market mix issue. Expensive homes are not selling as fast as inexpensive homes.
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It's not that it's a particularly active market. It's just that more homes are in that category because of that rise in the rate of appreciation.
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It's part of a broader trend. Nationwide there are markets that have a ways to go, especially in the Midwest. But we're much closer to the end of the cycle than the peak. Now we're watching how it plays out -- whether it's going to smash into a wall or just level off for a while.
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It's still going up, not as fast as it was a half year or a year ago.
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March is much more predictive of upcoming (home-buying) behavior.
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Once we have March figures, we'll have a much better indication of what's going on.
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Only if we have very short memories can we say there's a downturn in sales, or at least that sales are significantly low. This is actually as close to a normal market that we've had in seven to eight years.
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