35 ordspråk av John Karevoll
John Karevoll
Overall things are slowing down, but they are slowing from what was basically a very strong, if not frenzied, market.
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San Diego has easily been the county with the most (conversion) activity.
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San Diego is the county that is kind of the furthest off into this uncharted statistical territory, so everybody's wondering what is going to happen locally. The big question there is will prices decline significantly or will they flatten out.
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That part of the market is pretty stable, it's just that there's been across-the-board appreciation.
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The boom part of the cycle is over. Most of the gains this time around are behind us. Now the question is how much of those gains do we get to keep.
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The frenzied period is behind us. But that's good, from a market point of view. The abnormal market was the one we had a year or two ago.
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The market could go into a lull phase for a while where prices flatten out because we've pulled a lot of (sales) activity from the future.
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The market was heavily tilted toward sellers for the past couple of years, and the buyers felt an element of urgency and sometimes were making kind of desperate buying decisions. The market today is much better if you're a buyer.
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The million-dollar cycle hasn't completely played itself out in the more affordable areas, which include the Inland Empire. There is more to happen there.
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The prices hit a new record, but the rate of increase at which those prices hit that new record was the lowest in four years.
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The rate of appreciation is coming down. We actually thought it would be lower than this by now.
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The ups and downs of default activity are clearly determined by whether prices are going up by 4 percent, or 14 percent or 25 percent annually. If it's worth more, you have more options.
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There are an awful lot of analysts and think tanks out there telling everybody in the world the sky is falling, and they have been consistently wrong.
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There isn't a sense of urgency in the market. Buyers don't feel they need to stretch (finances) the way they felt before.
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These numbers include condo conversions and (that) activity increased sharply last year. Since they are lower-cost homes, they pull down the median.
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