Labor costs were one of the key inflation concerns cited by Chairman (Alan) Greenspan in his latest testimony, ... Our outlook reinforces his concern. |
Manufacturing growth has moderated in recent months, as the cycle moderates despite the hype about the new-found recovery. |
Manufacturing output is up, yet employment in the manufacturing sector is down. This result suggests that the firms are producing more in the U.S., but doing it with fewer workers. |
Manufacturing sector employment is likely to improve in the months ahead. However, employment gains are likely to remain below par. |
On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations. |
Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy. |
Our bet is that the impact, if there is a lot of damage, will get us $3-per-gallon gas in three weeks. |
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected. |
Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure. |
Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate, |
That means there is even more slack in the labor market than we had previously thought, giving the Fed even more reason to sit tight for the next several months. |
That's going to be driven by the decision making of the new Fed chairman. |
The decline in retail, leisure and transportation employment suggests rising business caution independent of any short-term storm, |
The economic recovery has legs -- those of a pony, not yet a quarter horse. |
The evidence so far would suggest we're probably going to have a below-average employment gain in this recovery. |