94 ordspråk av John Silvia
John Silvia
The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.
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The language will clearly be different. He'll give you a direct answer.
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The market has not seen a negative sharp change in fundamentals, ... You haven't seen a sharp rise in interest rates or a signal that the money isn't there to keep lifting prices.
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The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.
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The problem is, it doesn't look like a leadership position. [Top Wall Street] guys aren't going to hang around and just be salesmen.
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The question is often asked: When will capital spending kick in? I answer that it already has.
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The rate of spending is less than you would have expected given the typical business cycle. Companies have made a lot of money, but if you look at equipment and software spending, this cycle is below the pace of the past three or four cycles.
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The real challenge is that the inflation data have picked up and are simply too rapid for the Fed to declare the 'job done' [as far as interest rate increases].
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The reality is someone new is going to have to take over the job, and that new person is never going to have as much experience as Greenspan,
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The recent decline in crude oil prices took out a little bit of the peak in energy cycle. But the fundamental underlying price is higher than it was a year or six months ago.
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The recession was largely centered in the manufacturing sector, and that is where we continue to see the strongest signs of recovery.
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The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
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There are varying degrees of pain, but I don't think there are going to be many sectors that are not going to be impacted,
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There has to be concern about sustainability of growth overseas; Japan is central to that issue, ... If people are looking at fundamentals, that's the only news they have to look at this morning.
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There's got to be a lot of people out there with the cash for a deposit.
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