I don't see the scope for the ECB to match the Fed in terms of raising rates and this will continue to support the dollar. The ECB tends to lag the Fed and even if they hike, the yield differentials are still favorable to the dollar. |
I don't see this as an inherently dollar-positive statement. We'll see much greater uncertainty around the Fed at least until the next meeting because this statement is so flexible. |
I don't think there is a tremendous amount the Fed can do, but they can't stay on the sidelines. Unless the data stream improves, they have to cut rates. |
I don't think there's really any doubt the housing market remains extremely robust and growing. I had expected housing to fade. Now that we're out of recession, I don't really know what would knock it down at this point. |
I firmly believe consumer spending will stay in positive territory, but I think we will see further signs of consumer fatigue as the year progresses. |
I personally am among those with the view that we actually are going to see consumers shut down. |
I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it's hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down. |
I still don't expect a double dip [into recession], and I don't think the consumer will turn around [and stop spending], but I do take that confidence number very seriously. |
I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that. |
I think it's too soon to call for a bottom simply because history has shown us that with this currency, it's a tough bet. |
I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down, ... But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit. |
I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down. But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit. |
I think they'll need to see a lot of job growth, not just one month. |
I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise, ... This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed. |
I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed. |