I'm not in the 'V-shaped' camp. I definitely think we're going to get recovery, [but] the trajectory of that growth is going to be really low. |
I'm not presuming they'll be aggressively cutting rates [this year] if we see data turning around. But traditionally, the Fed holds rates low for a year and a half after a recession, and usually continues to cut throughout the beginning of a recovery. |
If that's the way the world is, then that's fantastic, because if oil prices go down and the Iraq situation disappears, we're off to the races again. But I think that opinion is at worst naive and at best simply putting on a brave face. |
If we get a downside surprise in retail sales, everybody will shrug it off. We all know that April was a bad month for the economy; the markets are really geared toward May. |
If we're in a situation where rates are higher because the economy's great, the housing market is going to be last thing I'll be worried about. |
If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated, ... That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth. |
If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated. That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth. |
If you look back at the data we had in July and August, they were not very positive. Even before Sept. 11, we weren't seeing growth anywhere, except in housing and [automobile sales]. |
In a typical recession, you see people...consolidate their domestic balance sheets. Instead, spending [has been] as robust as before, and that's hurt domestic balance sheets. We're really at a point where the consumer is squeezing water out of a stone. It doesn't provide the ground for a robust recovery. |
In the near term, markets are getting very excited about the idea of the end of quantitative easing, and that's causing the yen to come under some upward pressure. |
Inflation is looking more benign outside of the energy sector. |
Interest rates are low, the stock market is higher, and we hear all this talk about a tax-cut package, |
It erodes the relative interest-rate support for the dollar. |
It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow. |
It wouldn't surprise me if the Fed did stick with the positive and ignore the negative, but I can't imagine them taking out the statement [in their August policy announcement] that says 'labor market indicators are mixed,' ... If they are positive, they still have to retain at least that one negative. |