He is not going to stray far. |
He is very bright, he is very analytic, and he has excellent judgment. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he will be the next chairman. |
He was exactly the right man for the job at the right time. It's hard to give him a grade of less than A-plus. He's been a phenomenal chairman. |
He was the first economist in the United States to perceive what was happening. |
He went to some length to emphasize the importance of price stability because some in the financial markets had tried to characterize him as a dove on inflation. I think the objective was to not rock the boat. He didn't go an ounce beyond what the Fed has already told us. |
He will make the point that, if tax breaks go through, they need to be accompanied by firm discipline on the spending side, ... He's not going to actively oppose [Bush's] proposals -- that would be uncharacteristic. |
He wondered what I was doing and what he might do. I replied that when he leaves government service he's worth an enormous amount of money. |
He's not going to be the world's oracle. |
His answer was an honest one -- I think the markets misinterpreted what I said. |
I attended the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings as a Fed governor and, before that, as a staff member for 15 years and I never heard the word 'election' mentioned. |
I can't interpret this report as a weak economy, and I don't think the Fed will either. They are going to persist in moving interest rates up until they see greater indications than what we have now that either the economy is weakening, or inflation is getting under control, or both. |
I do think a pause is coming along at some point. My guess has been all along that a pause was more likely in the first meeting of next year than in December. The October employment report strengthens that view. |
I do think we are getting closing with each passing meeting to the day the release has to be restructured in very significant ways, |
I don't know what the bond market has been worried about. There's much talk about the possibility of inflation beginning to pick up. I don't see any signs of that at all apart from the rise in energy prices, which we all knew was going to take place. |
I don't think he is going to go way out on a limb. |