The Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines to await more definitive evidence as to whether inflation is going to be a problem or not, ... Setting the election aside entirely, the Fed, looking at the incoming data, would say to itself 'right now we don't want to raise interest rates and we don't need to raise interest rates.' |
The housing market is fading. |
The markets are helping the Fed accomplish what it's seeking, to slow down the economy a bit, take some of the froth off, |
The report, although on surface very weak, has within it other elements that suggest the economy is not falling apart, ... The odds are better than 50/50 that they will move up a quarter [on Tuesday], on the grounds that this slowdown is likely to be transitory. |
Then the Fed would be in a very tough spot, |
There are a lot of people who are able to use their home- equity loan or a cash-out refinancing to pay their revolving credit and save on the interest. You're getting an awfully good deal. |
There are a lot of worries circulating around about deflation, ... What the Fed is doing is saying we don't need to worry. If deflation happens, they will counter aggressively, and they have the tools to do so. |
There would be no easy answer, |
They recognize the risks to inflation are on the upside because of two factors: the potential for spillover of higher energy prices into core inflation and the tightening of the labor markets. |
They won't be spooked by stronger growth or declining unemployment, and they won't be spooked by increases in crude-materials prices, ... They will wait until they see clear evidence that inflation is likely to turn up at the consumer level. |
This is a situation where the uncertainties have suddenly become huge. If all the concerns translate into much lower personal spending, then the economy could falter. |
This is a very different recovery than any I've seen -- there's none of the dynamism or momentum we normally see, |
This is an economy that's been struggling to keep its head above water for some time, so this kind of a rise in long-term interest rates is not welcome at this point, |
This report does not signal an acceleration in GDP growth, ... There are so many other things going on, including terrorism abroad, that I see no big burst of confidence emerging from this. |
This report will be watched closely since at least one of the Fed presidents, Janet Yellen [Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco], has said that if there were a further substantial decline in unemployment, it will set off alarm bells in her head. |