My sense is we're basically moving sideways. All we did today is chop around. |
Now they are less than 50 percent confident that there will be any rise. |
On the fringes of the market, there is beginning to be some talk of the possibility that the Bank of Japan intervenes to sell U.S. dollars. While possible, the probability seems low at the present. |
On the one hand, being labeled a foreign exchange manipulator is a toothless policy because it simply requires bilateral talks. Big deal. On the other hand, by citing them the administration demonstrates to an uppity Congress that it is on the case and steals their thunder. |
Once we got through an important technical level that triggered a lot of stops. We went through the level that the technicians thought was a bottom. |
Sentiment will swing back in favor of a Federal Reserve rate hike in August if June retail sales rebound. |
Should the weak economic tone persist into early second quarter data, the risk of a summer rate cut increases. |
That's the way the market is viewing that. But I'm not sure that it effect money supply. |
The currency markets are particularly sensitive to this kind of news. Partly because when you buy a stock or buy a bond, you are buying a claim on a future earnings stream, some kind of money's coming to you in the future. When you buy a currency, you're buying confidence in a government. |
The data is stronger-than-expected ... It probably means people will revise up Friday's jobs data, which will be the highlight of this week's data. |
The data shows that the housing market is not falling off the edge of a cliff, and the consumer confidence numbers are also better than expected so we're seeing a knee-jerk rise in the dollar. |
The economic performance is taking on even great significance in the market's understanding of the trajectory of Fed policy. Any disappointment with the Philadelphia Fed Survey could lead to renewed dollar selling. |
The Federal Reserve purposely seeks not to surprise the market. And it delivered no surprise today, keeping rates steady. The statement following the meeting confirmed what the market has suspected, namely that demand is moderating bringing it closer to the economy's growth potential. |
The immediate economic implications are not good. |
The initial reaction to the budget was kind of blasé. |