Today's sharp selloff shows that there were more bears on vacation in August than we thought, and they've come back nasty. |
Unfortunately, ... we've got two types of investors right now in this market. We have got this new investor, the new breed that's brash, bold, aggressive, and very short-term oriented, who has not been through a real bear market. |
Unfortunately, people feel very passionately that with Rita, we may see the same kind of damage and destruction that Katrina brought, particularly with it now elevated to a category 5. |
Unfortunately, the market has taken a 'shoot now, analyze later' attitude. These companies are guilty until proven innocent, and they need to come up with confessions or disclosures that prove there's nothing questionable. |
Until we get to that point where investors truly feel that there is no floor to stock prices, that isn't the full capitulation. There's still an unusual amount of optimism. |
We do have a little bit of a role reversal. The vulnerability is that (tech) stocks are priced at such levels that any disappointment leaves investors with a quick and sour taste in the mouth. Today's action reflects a little insurance being taken out that if somebody falters, it will bring the others down. |
We have been victim of the success of the markets. |
We took two steps forward last week and only 1 step back so far this week. So there is some comfort in that. Hopefully we'll get through this weekend without incident and that should give people some reassurance. |
We're at the end of the quarter and people are consolidating a little bit. April could look better if we can see some tech names assert leadership. |
We're back to looking at the fundamentals and, at least temporarily, avoiding gossip and rumors. |
We're going to have more people talking about the Fed becoming less aggressive, which will be neutral or negative for the market because the market has been feeding off low interest rates. I don't think the Fed commentary is going to be as predictable and direct as the last meeting. |
We're going to see more of the same for the next few weeks, unless something comes in that indicates a pick-up in activity in the economy or on the corporate level, |
We're just beginning to see justification for the market's rise, with the earnings that have already come in. The next test comes tomorrow, with the banks. People will be looking to see if loan demand in the economy has picked up. |
We're looking at a company that's going to grow, I think, at about 14 percent over the next several years with, I might add, a lot of predictability and I think a lot of visibility and a high level of confidence, ... So with Merck at 31 times earnings now and down about 20 percent from its high, I think we're getting into an opportunity where it's a lot better than trying to buy a cyclical that's selling at 27 times earnings and where the visibility is a lot more questionable. |
We're nearing an inflection point, |