The inclination is toward selling the rally instead of buying on the dips. |
The jobs report is the cornerstone of the week. But a lot happens ahead of it. |
The major question is: Is there more damage to be done? |
The market is also still living with the legacy of the Fed's decision yesterday to raise rates, ... There are a number of people who feel the Fed should have paused, and should have considered the ramifications of Katrina and Rita. |
The market is just behaving very nicely. We have given up very little of the rally since March. |
The market may be more conditioned to take surprises than we give it credit for. |
The market's reaction has been pretty benign. But I think the market is looking at this as more constructive than destructive. I think the market has absorbed this extremely well even though there is a downward bias. |
The markets got a little premature declaring victory last week and the shorts rushed in to cover. Now enthusiasm has dissipated and the selling pressure is on. People are realizing that the war is going to be longer and more drawn out than anticipated. |
The May payrolls report will be the celebrated one next week, and there may be some controversy around it. |
The negative sentiment we are seeing is a terrific Wall Street indicator, |
The only concern I do have is I'd like to see a couple more months (of data) put together here before we declare this torrid, hot economy as into another phase of gearing down. I'm not as optimistic yet that we have slowed everything. |
The profits numbers will be mostly dismissed in the first quarter as a casualty of war. Now we'll see how much momentum we can pick up from the reverse of war negativity. |
The question is what are the real earnings. |
The rally in the first two weeks of January was based on expectations that we would have a decent reporting period. Largely, that's been true, with many earnings reports meeting or topping estimates. But unfortunately, the commentary about the future has been a huge downer. That's one of the things holding investors back now. |
The recovery is still tepid. The market is reflecting that slowness. |