103 ordspråk av Victor Shum
Victor Shum
A lot of the price rise is due to geopolitical concerns fuelling speculative interest.
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A lot of uncertainty remains in how the Iranian situation will work itself out. There is some concern in the Asian market on whether Iran is a reliable supplier.
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Any decisions on sanctions will not be in the near future because two members on the council with veto power, China and Russia, have rather strong economic ties with Iran.
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At the end of the day, physical asset acquisition is going to give banks more leverage over their trading positions.
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Because of this, there is concern of a potential disruption in gasoline supplies due to this switch-over.
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Because the surge in prices last week was so strong, inevitably there is profit-taking.
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Besides the fundamental supply and demand information, prices are driven by the emotional momentum of the Iranian issue.
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Between now and when the U.N. Security Council actually takes up the issue there will be some saber-rattling, but in the near term traders know there won't be any disruption to supply from it.
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But then the storm reloaded over the weekend, gained strength and set on a path toward the oil facilities, ... The people who sold on Friday are probably kicking themselves now.
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Crude inventory went up and the market is concerned about the continuing gasoline stock draw in the US market and the peak summer driving season that starts in late May.
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Cuts in exports of oil will spark off geo-political fears that will make traders think twice about selling. Traders don't want to be caught short.
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Even if there's available crude for release, if there's no refining capacity that they can use, what good is that?
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Expect volatility in the short term and the market will attempt to react to news with an upward bias.
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Gasoline inventories in the U.S. continue to be an issue in the market because last week's inventory report showed a stock decline as we approach the summer driving season.
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Geo-political factors in [Iran and Nigeria] could bring prices back up quickly. Any downside in prices is limited by these geo-political fears.
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